Dr.Sreeradha Datta

Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia arrived in New Delhi on 20 March 2006. This was the first state visit to India four half years after Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led coalition formed the government in Dhaka and indeed less than six months before her term ends. This more than anything else tells a lot not only about the significance of the visit but also about the existing nature of Indo-Bangladesh bilateral relations.

The last four years have been a classic example of missed opportunities. Missed opportunities from Indian side ranged from lack of initiatives to strengthening political and economic ties, neutralising the perceived bias towards Awami League, and engaging positively with Bangladesh.

From Bangladeshi side their actions reeked of attitude. Myopic vision and lack of clarity about their economic developmental plan was evident time and again. Rather unfortunate considering the fact that the present government in Dhaka is not handicapped by the perceived India bias. They were in   a position to take some hard     nosed decision without having to worry about selling out to its neighbour factor.

The ushering of a BNP coalition in October 2001 coincided with a massive outbreak of violence against the minority Hindus soon after it became clear that Awami League was not forming the government. New Delhi・s underplaying the issue and muted official reaction seemed to suggest that bilateral ties were going to be dealt with differently in the years to come. But as the events unfolded that was too high a wish list. Neither New Delhi was imaginative to focus on the convergences nor could Dhaka view India without the stereotype anti-India baggage.

The joint press release issued on March 23 at the completion of Begum Zia・s three day visit expressed that ：discussions between the sides led by the two Prime Ministers were held in a cordial atmosphere and there was a constructive and forward-      looking exchange of views.； There could not have been more mundane and stale statement expressing exactly what transpired between   the two governments over the three days. Precisely nothing, at least nothing of any substance. Two agreements  were signed during   this visit. These were, the Revised Trade Agreement and the Agreement for Mutual Cooperation for Preventing Illicit Trafficking in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances and Related Matters.  Simply put they are not worth the paper inked on. The trade agreement revives a 1980 pact which was due to expire on March 31. The two Prime Ministers did not have to meet to sign them. They could have been handled by others.

Then what was the need of the visit now? Since her assuming of office Begum Zia has  clocked great mileage but India was not considered worth a visit. Indeed the two Prime Ministers differed over whose turn it was to visit each other among more substantial issues. Thus it was only after the November SAARC summit and face saving visit of Indian Prime MInister Manmohan Singh to Dhaka that Begum Zia decided India deserves a visit. Pretty shabby treatment of one its largest trading partners (present bilateral trade stands at around $1.7 billion). And so far as India  is concerned Dhaka simply is not worth any attention. It looms on Indian radar screen only because of the North-East insurgent groups and leaders who continue to torment Indian policy makers from various parts of Bangladesh and for the flow of undocumented economic migrants from Bangladesh to various parts of India.

Khaleda Zia・s coalition government has been a focus of all eyes. And for all the wrong reasons. The last few years in Bangladesh have witnessed unprecedented rise of political and religious violence. Increasing levels of violence and declining law and order situation had dominated the last few months of the previous Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina. BNP came to power on promise to rein in terrorism that was plaguing Bangladesh. In reality violence in forms of attacks and bomb blasts against opposition leaders as well as secular personalities and organisations escalated sharply.

Apart from the attacks against Awami leaders Sheikh Hasina and SMS Kibria (which proved fatal) and British High Commissioner in Sylhet, incident of 400 simultaneous bomb blasts all over Bangladesh proved too embarrassing for the ruling coalition. The deteriorating conditions drew the focussed attention of the international community led by the donor countries. Even with their limited influence over Bangladesh it was obvious that government had to make amends. The government erstwhile denial of existence of terrorist in Bangladesh leave alone accepting the allegations of its linkages seemed too blatant and difficult to ignore. With Jatiya Sangsad elections due in early 2007, BNP  could not afford to disassociate itself from its religious coalition partners against whom the arrow of accusation were all pointing to. It is the Jamaat with its enormous organisational network provides the BNP widespread operational support across Bangladesh. An asset none of the other mainstream political parties can boast off. The next best option for the government was to ban some of the terrorist groups such as Jamatul Mujhahideen Bangladesh and Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh as well as arrests some of these terrorist leaders like Maulana Abdur Rahman and Bangla Bhai who if some leaders of the coalition government were  to be believed did not even exist  till some time back. The timing of both are ludicrous to say the least and reeks of complicity of the parties in power. 

But what is more pertinent is the growing domestic opinion against the rise of terror. The strength of the opposition rallies and anti terrorism public mood within Bangladesh unnerved Begum Zia enough to warrant a visit to India. Not only was there a need to appease and plug the opposition critical opinion that was growing stronger  by the day but circumstances made it imperative to factor in the liberal elites who increasingly view the growth of Bangladesh not in opposition to India but rather along with India.

Indeed in the initial years of the BNP government there was a promise of enhancing economic ties. The committees that were constituted to examine the natural gas export issue seemed well inclined to work towards a positive outcome. But given the rising anti export domestic opinion certainly, led by the opposition Awami League it was soon a dead deal. Not only India did not get supply of the energy it has been hungry for but Bangladesh seemed resigned to not tapping its natural resources to its maximum potential. The Tata investment plan of $ 3 billion also log jammed over the supply of gas too. It would have been the biggest FDI  that Bangladesh would have received till date. To fitter away this opportunity especially at a time when most international investment is bypassing Bangladesh the decision is pretty short sighted. This would have been the biggest vote earner for BNP but obviously Dhaka policy makers think differently. This lack of vision became more glaring when Bangladesh decided to stay away from the Asian Highway project citing its disapproval of being part of a project that might give transit to  India. Not to speak of the hesitancy over the gas pipeline drawn from Arakan (Rakhine) state in Myanmar, via the Indian states of Mizoram and Tripura before crossing Bangladesh. Besides giving Bangladesh a grid that they could have used themselves the $125 million or so in transit fee was not incentive enough. And now Begum Zia is suggesting India  uses Bangladesh as a gateway to the markets in the southeast east! 

While Bangladeshi leaders cannot be seen making any positive moves towards India, India is not hindered by similar baggage. But its dealing with Bangladesh is sans of any imaginations. New Delhi could have used this visit to unilaterally announce lowering of down of tariff non tariff barriers and any other economic concessions that would deem fit a regional power. But India cant be seen doing anything without explicit returns. The political goodwill it would have earned and the long term leverage of such gestures is lost on Indian policy makers. It rather waste time in parlays over the scrouge of terrorism while on the same breadth Bangladeshi leaders deny the existence of Indian insurgents bases in Bangladesh. A Dhaka-Delhi soap opera indeed!

The operationalisation of the railway link between Sealdah (West Bengal)-Joydebpur (Bangladesh) is one of the most tangible positive outcomes. While a gamut of issues was raised none of the contentious issues like trade deficit, transit rights, Indian insurgent camps got addressed. There the usual denials or reassurances galore largely following the trend of the past. This visit badly timed as it is could not break any new grounds.   Nothing much could be achieved even though there were myriad reasons to engage fruitfully with each other. With elections around the corner arguably Khaleda government is not the best of partners to deal with but also Bangladesh unfortunately did not send out the right signals about wanting to actually improve the bilateral ties. And while Indian Prime Minister rightly said that a prosperous Bangladesh is in India ・s interest one does not get a sense that it is actually happening.

|  Headlines  |  Editorial   | Coverstory  |
|  Travel Column   |   News Briefs  |
| OT Main Page | Nena  Home Page  |