No wave to ride 
With political parties facing erosion in their support base, no one seems to be confident about the poll outcome in Assam.

North East News Agency

Don't blame the electorate if the verdict is factured in Assam this time. With the support base of the ruling Congress eroding, especially in minority dominated areas and tea belts and the failure of the opposition parties to build a common platform, poll scenario in Assam confusing to say the least.

Initially, many political observers in the State thought that the Congress would gain from the disunity among the opposition parties. The disunity may still help the Congress, but what is worrying is that the party has failed to keep its own vote bank intact.  As usual ending the 27-year-old insurgency in the State tops the agenda of every political party for the polls. Bangladeshi infiltration and illegal immigrants are another hot topic.

Interestingly, this time United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) has not asked the electorate to boycott the polls, rather it has warned political parties ¡¥not to encourage¡¦ people to participate in the poll process. It is an open secret that the success of the Congress largely depends on the support of tea tribes of the State, which traditionally supports the party. But the picture is different this time.

Taking advantage of the growing differences among major groups among the tea tribes such as All Assam Tea Tribes Students Association (ATTSA), Assam Adivasi Students Asociation (AASA), Asom Chah Mazdoor Sangha (ACMS), the BJP, under the leadership of Pramod Mahajan, is trying hard to make a dent in the Congress citadel.

How determined BJP is to hurt the Congress in its own citadel can be judged from the fact that the party is using the servives of former Jharkhand chief minister Babulal Marandi, present Chief Minister Arjun Munda and filmstars such as Hema Malini and Smriti Irani for campaigning in the area.

The presence of such heavyweights in the opposition camp is giving the Congress sleepless nights. Former Union minister and tea tribe leader Paban Singh Ghatwar admitted that this time the party had to work hard to keep iots support base intact. In the campaign, while the BJP is harping on the failures of successive Congress Governments in the State, the Congress, on the other hand is trying to make the people aware about the communal design of the BJP.

The Congress is facing another tough challenge in case of minority support. With the IM (DT) gone and the formation of United Democratic Front (UDF), a political party formed with the support of the Assam chapter of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Hind and 12 other prominent Muslim and linguistic minority groups, the party may not get as much support of the minorities as it used to get in previous elections. To woo the minorities Congress president Sonia Gandhi has virtually assured everything under the sun to them. Moreover, the party has fielded Abdul Muhib Mazumdar, one of the architects of IM (DT) Act from Hailakandi. But the question here is: Will it be enough to bring back minority votes to the Congress?

If Congress is shaky, the opposition parties too are not on a strong wicket. Main opposition party in the State, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has failed to keep its house intact. Party stalwart Prafulla Mahanta has already left the party and formed AGP (P). Beyond doubt, division within the AGP will benefit the Congress most. But as the Congress is also facing erosion in its support base, some upset results cannot be ruled out.

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