Date with a severe quake?
NE is seismically one of the six most active regions in the world. It is placed in Zone V, the highest on the seismic zonation map of India.
North East News Agency

Will a major earthquake jolts the North-East. in near future? One seriously hopes not, particularly with almost any disaster management mechanism in place. But, if what many experts have to say is believed, then the North-East may have a date with an earthquake, in not too distant a future.

The North-East is seismically one of the six most active regions in the world, the other five being Mexico, Taiwan, California, Japan & Turkey. It is placed in Zone V, the highest on the seismic zonation map of India while the Shillong Plateau is located in the highly vulnerable zone 6.

Strong alarm focus on this region came after the 2004 year-end devastating tsunami. A group of Canadian and American geologists put their finger in and around India’s North-East as the next region in line to face a severe quake. But this warning was not taken too seriously in many quarters. But the region has again come under intense focus of seismologists after the shattering earthquake in Pakistan and Kashmir.

Even the Union Government has now risen to the threat. The seismic disaster advisor to the Ministry of Home Affairs Dr. A. S. Arya warned of a major catastrophe in the North-East as the chances of a high intensity quake looms large. “Minor tremors are recurring and there is every chance that sooner of later a major jolt might come”, said Dr. Arya. He fears that a major disaster would doom some of the cities in the region.

The Meghalaya based North East Space Application Centre (NESAC) has also predicted that a major natural calamity in any form can hit the North-East region in any moment. According to NESAC, growing trend of forest encroachment, poor planning, population explosion, contamination of ground water etc. are posing serious threat to the region and increasing the risk of earthquakes.

The Kathmandu based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) is also a top agency that has rung alarm for North-East. ICIMOD, an independent international institution is governed by a board comprising representatives of eight member countries including Afghanisthan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. Clearly pointing out the danger, ICIMOD is also critical that most places along the Himalayan region do not have policies or programmes for addressing ‘mountain tsunami’ like earthquakes and flash floods.

A very big earthquake had struck the North-East region in 1897 claiming 1500 lives. The affected places are still very quake-prone. 16 major earthquakes had struck the region in the last 100 years at an average of one in six years. All total, an earthquake measuring above 5 in the Richter scale had struck 200 times, above 6 on 130 occasion, 7 and above 15 times and 8 plus as many as 4 times. Minor tremors have become a part of life in this part of the country.

“Lopsided town planning and haphazard development with mushrooming of structures all over the region is not in line with the prescribed norms to avoid a major disaster. Most of the high rise coming up lack proper designing and openly flout norms. This is surely preparing the ground for disaster. The aspect, of safety and applying the right scientific technology can not be simply ignored. An earthquake over 7 in the Ritcher scale killed just one person in Michigan (USA) whereas a shake of similar intensity claimed 10,000 in Bhuj.

ICIMOD suggests network and co-operation between different towns; different states of the region as also between the North-East region and its neighbouring states and countries so that one can be prepared to deal with natural disasters. ICIMOD Director General, Gabriel Campbell has this to say - “N.E. has a fragile mountain ecosystem. We stress on regional co-operation to understand the typical problems of the region and enhance the role that local communities has to play in disaster mitigation and management”.

However, some of the states of this region are somewhat waking up. Like Assam, the biggest State of the region, having the maximum urban towns and cities, had put all DC’s on high alert and asked them to intensify disaster management programmes soon after the recent earthquake in Pakistan & Kashmir. Dispur even sought help and suggestions from US experts on regular basis to execute disaster management programmed in an effective org fruitful manner. A team of US experts led by David E. Liebersbach, Director of the Alaska Division Emergency Services in US comes down to Assam recently, interacted with officials from the civil administration and police, workers of NGOs and citizens on how to deal with natural disasters. Some other states like Mizoram and Tripura. have also shown desire to put up an earthquake disaster management programme in place. But overall, is the North-East showing enough preparedness to deal with a natural disaster of severe magnitude? Or is it more of showing concern and raising a cry immediately after some big calamity and: then sleeping over the imminent danger by abjectly ignoring the threat.

One can do little if Mother Nature decides to strike. Nobody can predict earthquakes. But there are pointers. Such sure pointers are focused on the North-East today. The occurrence cannot be prevented. But the disaster, one can.

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