Welcoming the passage of the Bill seeking to implement the Indo-US civil nuclear deal by the United States Senate, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said there was still a long way to go for the pact to become 'living reality.' Aspects of the two bills on the deal passed by the US House of Representatives and the Senate were 'not identical' and the process of reconciling them will 'have to take on board our concerns,' Dr Singh said at the HT Leadership Summit in New Delhi. "I welcome the decision of the US Senate to approve the bill. Before that, the House of Representatives had done a similar thing," he said, adding: "But we still have a long way to go before nuclear cooperation between India and the US becomes a living reality." President George W Bush had assured him that he will work to ensure that the final version of the legislation is in conformity with the agreement of July 18, 2005 and the separation plan of March 2 this year, Dr Singh said while replying to a question from the audience.

Nuke treaty may still be dead

Has the Manmohan Singh ministry's nuclear deal with the United States become a gun at India's head? Or is it just another case of this administration permitting India to become a punching-bag for other nations?

I am writing this from Washington, DC, very late on the day when the United States Senate was supposed to give the green signal to the bill as part of its 'lame duck' session. It says something of President Bush's diminished clout that even his fellow Republicans, many of whom have nothing left to lose, are unwilling to push his desired legislation through.

They have already smacked the White House in the face by denying him the pleasure of taking a trade pact as he leaves for Vietnam. And the India bill was postponed because a Senator insisted on taking up an agriculture bill -- after discussing which so many Senators drifted away that there wasn't a quorum in the house. (See, it isn't just Indian MPs who find better things to do than to actually attend the House when it is in session!)

Back in April, when ministers in Delhi were still gung-ho about pulling off a foreign policy coup, I wrote: 'The mood in Washington seemed to be that the American Senate might still, on balance, give its nod to the nuclear pact with India. But nobody was willing to say how long the process might take.' Seven months later, we were still awaiting the Senate's approval. (And the mandarins in Delhi are much less effusive!)

As far as I can tell, there is no strong opposition to the nuclear deal but there is no great support for it either. The Jewish lobby, as I wrote last time, was trying to use the passage of the bill through the United States Congress as a lever to force India's hand over Iran (perceived as a long-term threat to Israel).

The attempt at the time was to prevent India from going ahead and signing the gas deal with Iran; while the Jews have nothing against India per se they are opposed in principle to anything that might strengthen an enemy of Israel. This delay has given India's actual foes a chance to marshal their forces. I refer of course to the neighbours with whom the gods have chosen to curse us. Neither Pakistan nor China is coming out openly against the deal negotiated by the Bush and Manmohan Singh teams. 

They tried that tack when the pact first became public knowledge, and it didn't work then. So this time the opposition is subtler, and they are attacking from the flanks. Pakistan is said to be lobbying Senators on the ground that the nuclear deal with India is bad on principle. It is trying to persuade everyone that the United States should act on a broad set of principles rather than negotiate on a case by case basis.

Translation: 'Give every nuclear state the same privileges and exemptions as those granted to India!' Meanwhile, China is choosing to exercise its influence in places that might be more pliable than the United States. I understand from one American interlocutor that Norway might be the chosen cat's paw in this game. Why Norway? Well, that Scandinavian nation happens to be one of the 45 countries in the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (a body that, incidentally, was set up as a direct response to India's first nuclear test).

Let us understand that restrictions on civilian nuclear technology will not be automatically lifted even after the US Senate gives the green signal to the Bush-Manmohan Singh deal. It is up to each member state of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group to decide whether it accepts or denies export applications to India. And Norway has in the past been used to block the transfer of dual-use technology to Israel, which makes it the most likely tool against India too. (Of course, it is an open secret that Israel went ahead and built nuclear weapons anyway -- without suffering any adverse consequences thanks to the power of its lobby in the United States.)

India might thus be stuck in a situation where the treaty is dead in the water even if it gets through the US Senate. I found it significant that Prime Minister John Howard of Australia was absolutely noncommittal about supplying India when he visited Delhi -- and that was after President Bush had signed the pact with India. Who is to say that Norway's opposition might not prove to be the thin end of a very large wedge?

All this, of course, is based on the assumption that the deal wins Congressional approval. But nobody seems to know in what shape the pact shall emerge, having gone through the grind of the American legislative process. There are anywhere between nine and 18 proposed amendments, following which some sort of an accord has to be reached between the House of Representatives and the Senate. (I have said it before and I say it again, it is utterly shameful that the Indian Parliament has been given no say in the deal unlike its American counterpart!)

India desperately needs to upgrade its nuclear power plants. At the end of the day, there is no more economical way to satisfy the growing needs of the Indian economy. Given the record of the defence-related research establishment -- missiles exploding in mid-air, a battle-tank that has left the Army fuming, a light combat aircraft that is not ready after over a decade's delay -- I must reluctantly agree that infusions of foreign technology are needed pretty quickly. (The governmental scientific bureaucracy has, of course, held a stranglehold on nuclear research in India.)

The incoming Congress, dominated by the Democrats, is not necessarily inimical to India. But several of the members, particularly those elected for the first time, have strong protectionist sentiments. They may not care a toss for the arcana of nuclear pacts but they can, and do, care about the outsourcing of jobs to India. And that will make it just a bit harder to push through legislation that favours India.

There is, I am told, every chance that the Senate will give the green signal to the nuclear deal by the time you read this. But nobody is willing to come out and say in what shape -- and with what conditions attached to it -- the agreement shall emerge.
By reading Indian papers over the Internet I understand that the Pakistani foreign secretary has been given the chance to lecture India on its human rights record in Kashmir while visiting Delhi -- a fallout of the prime minister's commitments to General Musharraf in Havana.

I also read in shock and anger that the Chinese ambassador is claiming that Arunachal Pradesh is Chinese territory -- even as the Manmohan Singh ministry rolls out the red carpet for the Chinese president. Is it too much to hope that the nuclear deal with President Bush shall not turn out to be another foreign policy 'masterstroke' that has gone sour?

N-deal still needs a lot of sanitation: Scientists

The scientific community on Friday termed as an 'important step' adoption of the Indo-US nuclear deal bill by the US Senate but cautioned that New Delhi should not allow itself to get cornered on certain concerns raised by it on the issue.
Former chairman of Atomic Energy Commission and currently a member of the Commission M R Srinivasan told PTI from Ooty: "This is an important step in the entire process in getting on with the Indo-US nuclear deal but it is not the end of the process."

Srinivasan said: "Today's process has shown a strong bipartisan support in cooperation regime with India in nuclear matters. But we have to wait and see if both House and Senate in its joint session in December will take up all the concerns expressed by India through various diplomatic channels."

Former director of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre A N Prasad, who was part of International Atomic Energy Agency inspection group on Iraq, said from Bangalore that the passage of the Bill was 'expected.' "However, the bill, which has so many objectionable points in the current form, are not acceptable to India and requires lot of reconciliation and sanitation," he said.

Former chairman of Atomic Energy Commission P K Iyengar said: "They may have done little amendments in the bill but it does not mean it will favour India in all respects and before the finalisation, a lot of discussions and debate are required." In his reaction, Srinivasan said: "Although the landmark Indo-US deal was cleared by the Senate after rejecting at least the five killer amendments, including one seeking a cap on India's fissile material production, we have to see the language of it."

"Even in the bilateral agreement '123,' we have to see the language of the American lawyers," he said. "Hopefully, when Congress returns from its Thanksgiving Holiday recess on December 4 and before the lame-duck session ends two weeks later, we will come to know whether the Americans will take note of our concerns and how subsequently we can work together," Srinivasan said.

Former director of Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam, Placid Rodrigues said the language of the bill cleared by the Senate will have to be seen before a proper could be made. Observing that the bill has many objectionable points, especially on supply of uranium which is not in favour of India, Prasad said President George W Bush had reportedly committed to India to provide a fail-safe methodology for uninterrupted fuel supply.

In the current form the bill created a hand-to-mouth situation with regard to stockpiling of uranium for the lifetime of a reactor, Prasad said, adding that this would not be acceptable to India.

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