BJP: Winner in North East?

WHILE the BJP leaders are burning midnight oil in search of more seats in Lok Sabha, the North-East may help the party to translate its dream of capturing 300 Lok Sabha seats on its own into a reality.

For the first time in the electoral history of India, the BJP and its allies stands a real good chance of doing well in the region a traditional Congress bastion. Since Independence, the Congress has always bagged majority of the Lok Sabha seats from the region. Even in the last general elections in 1999, Congress bagged majority of seats from the region. The North-East has 25 seats including the lone parliamentary seat in Sikkim.

In the 1999 election, the Congress bagged 14 seats. BJP, NCP and CPI (M) captured two seats each. But this time, the Congress may not be so lucky as cracks are already visible in this Congress bastion. It lost power Nagaland and Arunachal last year. The party’s effort to recapture power in Tripura with the help of former ultra Bijay Hrankhwal had also come to a naught. Although it improved its tally in the Mizoram Assembly elections in November, it could not recapture power. Out of the eight states of the region, the Congress is presently in power in three states — Assam, Meghalaya and Manipur.

On the other hand, though it had only signboard presence in most parts of the region till recently, BJP has done exceptionally well in the last couple of years to transform party in to a force to reckon with. First, the party made certain micro-level compromises with regional parties to find foothold in the region and then went on to expand its base even in the remotest corner of the region.

The BJP’s growing influence in Karbi Anglong district in Assam and among the tea tribes, who are traditional Congress supporters are a testimony to this fact. Moreover, the BJP played a major role in uniting non-Congress parties in the region. The so called ‘’feel good’’ factor along with the hard work at the grassroots level for the last couple of years will give the Congress sleepless nights. This is for the first time that the party is facing such a tough battle in the region.

Sensing the low morale of the Congress workers, Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi recently vowed to wipe out the BJP from the region and at the same time expressed the confidence that the party would win at least 13 seats (out of 14) in Assam to minimise the damage the Congress might suffer elsewhere in the region. But his colleagues are not as enthusiastic as Mr Gogoi. In private, they are admitting that this time the party may suffer heavy loss in the region. If the Congress faces its worst-ever defeat in the region in the coming elections, it will be because of the fact that the party had taken the region for granted. While the BJP is all set to announce a separate electoral manifesto for the region, the Congress had never done so despite getting bagful of seats from the region time and again. Today the electorate of the region are feeling alienated from the Congress.

Another factor, which has gone in BJP’s favour, is the endeavour of Vajpayee Government to bring back peace in the region, especially in Nagaland. Ongoing Naga peace process, NSCN (I-M) leaders Isak Swu and T Muivah’s visit to India last year, the Bodo Accord, all have contributed immensely to the BJP’s growing popularity in the region. It has been reported that that Vajpayee Government may initiate talks with six more insurgent groups of the North-East before the general elections. If the dialogue process commences prior to polls, it will further boost the party’s prospects in the region.

North East Peoples Forum joins NDA

Congress will face its toughest fight ever in the Lok Sabha polls in the North-East, with North East People’s Forum (NEPF) all set to contest polls.  The constituents of the Forum, which is in power in four of the eight states in the region, will pose a tough challenge to the Congress in its traditional stronghold of North-East.

A delegation of the NEPF led by former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma recently met Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani and BJP president Venkaiah Naidu to formally hand over the resolution adopted in the executive meeting of the Forum to join the NDA. The NEPF, in its executive meeting has resolved to convert the Front into a political entity and to join the NDA. The NEPF is likely to contest forthcoming Lok Sabha polls in the North-East as a single front.

Mr. Sangma and other NCP leaders from North-East have already parted ways with Sharad Pawar on the issue of Sonia’s foreign origin.

NEPF was Mr. Sangma’s brainchild. The other members of the NEPF delegation that met the BJP leaders comprised Mizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga, Nagaland Chief Minister and NEPF Convenor Neiphiu Rio and former Rajya Sabha MP and NCP leader B B Dutta.  The BJP president had welcomed the move of the NEPF and said that he would forward the resolution to the NDA convenor George Fernandes for taking necessary action. It may be mentioned here that the Assam Unit of the BJP has reservations on the NEPF becoming a political entity and though the State BJP president Indramoni Bora attended the NEPF meeting, he did not sign the resolution. NEPF, a conglomeration of 17 political parties including the BJP and breakaway NCP and regional parties from North-East was formed in last September to address the chronic problems of the region including insurgency and illegal immigration. Separate poll manifesto for North-East: BJP With Lok Sabha polls round the corner, the BJP is gearing up to give a tough fight to the Congress in the North-East, the latter’s traditional stronghold. Congress is in power in three of the eight North-Eastern states. The BJP and its allies are in power in four states.

BJP leaders from the North-East met party President M Venkaiah Naidu and other central leaders to discuss the poll strategy for the region. 

The BJP will prepare a separate poll manifesto for the region highlighting important local issues. The overall poll strategy of the BJP in the North-East would revolve round providing good and transparent governance, political stability, pledge to solve the problem of demographic aggression in the region, besides, highlighting the NDA government’s achievements in brokering peace with the NSCN (IM) and the Bodo Liberation Tiger (BLT). As far as Assam is concerned, the BJP would highlight on the unabated infiltration across the Bangladesh border. The party feels that the silent agression from across the border in the region has changed the demographic pattern of the State and other states and posed serious threat to the security and integrity of India. Growing activities of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) poses a grave threat to the society in the region as a whole and Assam in particular, the party think-tank feels. He also claimed that ‘’ISI was extending all logistic and armed support to different insurgent groups in the region to fulfill its design of include the entire NE region to a greater Islamic State’’.