Kissa Kurshi Kaa

As under the new Act cabinet size can’t be more than 15 per cent of the House strength, 124 ministers will lose their jobs in North-East.

WITH the President giving his assent to the new anti-defection bill, passed by the Parliament on December 18, unemployment of another kind will definitely be on the rise in the North-East. The anti-defection bill, which has become an Act with the Presidential nod, limits the size of the ministry to 15 per cent of the legislators. As most of the North-Eastern states have 60-member Assemblies, there cannot be more than 12 ministers in those states as per the new law.

As the law has come into effect, Assam will have to drop 17 ministers. Arunachal Pradesh should drop 28 ministers, followed by Manipur and Meghalaya. Both the states will have to shed 23 ministers each. Nagaland should drop 22 ministers. Tripura and Sikkim may not be too worried about the new law, as the states will have to drop 6 and 5 ministers respectively. Peace talks with NSCN (IM), Royal Bhutan Government’s action against the insurgent outfits active in the North-East and the Centre’s sincere effort to ensure speedy economic development of the region, the year 2004 could not begin on a brighter note than this for the North-Easterners. But not all are happy about these developments. With the new Act, the politicians of the region are the unhappiest lot at present. All the ministers of Ibobi Singh Government in Manipur had to celebrate the New Year virtually being under house arrest in the Chief Minister’s bungalow. The Assam ministers are spending sleepless nights over the possibilities of loosing their jobs, since Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi returned from Delhi, reportedly after finalising the names of the ministers to be dropped with the party high command. The immediate task before Nagaland Chief Minister N. Rio and Meghalaya Chief Minister D. D. Lapang and Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Gegong Apang, is to save their coalition governments without earning the wrath of the other constituents of the ruling front. A difficult task indeed as all three of them had to drop more than 50 per cent of their ministerial colleagues.

Those, who are aware about the fragile character of North-Eastern coalitions, clearly know that a ‘please all’ attitude is key to remain in power. Over the years, all the North-Eastern Chief Ministers remained in power by offering ministerial sops. When W. Nipamacha Singh was the chief minister of Manipur, all MLAs, barring one, became ministers. Nipamacha Sigh could afford that, as the MLA was his sister-in-law. As the new law comes into force, all the North-Eastern have to prune their ministries. This will definitely result in political instability in states where coalition governments are in power. Political defections are nothing new in the region.

However, the only North-Eastern State, which can meet the new challenge without many difficulties, is Tripura. Tripura is unlikely to witness any political unrest because of the new Act. Tripura will reduce the size of its Ministry once the law comes into force. Chief Minister Manik Sarkar has already stated that the Left Front-led State Government would reduce its cabinet size according to the new provision of the Constitution once it became an Act following the President’s assent. “We sincerely support the new legislation to reduce the strength of the State Cabinet,’’ Mr. Sarkar said and added that the government will abide by any provision of the Constitution. He said present strength of the cabinet was much lower than the strength of the other states. Presently there are 18 cabinet ministers including the Chief Minister, in the fifth Left Front ministry in Tripura. As per the new law, the strength of the Tripura cabinet will be reduced to 12. But other North-Eastern states are not so lucky. Take the example of Manipur. To prevent the exodus of his ministers Ibobi Singh has kept the ligislators under close watch.  In a hectic political maneuvering to prevent defection, Manipur Chief Minister O Ibobi Singh had also packed off 12 ministers, including the Assembly Speaker, to Kolkata to foil the opposition Democratic Peoples Alliance’s (DPA) attempt to dislodge his Secular Progressive Front (SPF) government. Speaker T N Haokip was escorted by a cabinet minister up to Kolkata where he was received by another cabinet minister who stayed there at an undisclosed hotel. The Speaker and another minister had put up a brief halt at the Bhawan and then proceeded for an unknown destination.

The DPA, led by the BJP, has been holding a series of meetings to chalk out strategies to foil the efforts of the Chief Minister to save his Ministry before enacting the anti-defection bill, which was passed by both the houses of the parliament. Assam provides another interesting study arising out of this new Act. A section of ministers of Assam are spending sleepless nights over the Constitution (97th Amendment) Bill, 2003. A certain section of Assam’s jumbo Cabinet is making hectic efforts through different channels to stay on in the new Ministry, since the new Act has made it mandatory to limit the State cabinet size to 19 ministers. They are more worried as Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi recently stated that the capacity and abilities of his ministers would be judged by the performance of their respective departments. Mr. Gogoi’s statement, clubbed with the Congress high command’s emphasis on the younger generation of party men, virtually means end of the road for several ‘graying’ ministers. At present, the Assam Government has 19 Cabinet ministers, 5 with independent charge and 11 ministers of state. Mr. Gogoi’s problem has been further compounded by the fact that that he will have to maintain the delicate balance between Upper Assam, Lower Assam and Barak Valley while dropping the ministers.  The ministers from Upper Assam, are Devanand Konwar (Power), Sarat Barkataky (PWD), Dr Hemoprobha Saikia (Handloom and Textiles), Anjan Datta (Transport), Rameshwar Dhanowar (Excise & Labour), Rupam Kurmi (Employment) and Pradyut Bordoloi (Forests). Among all these ministers, it may be easy for Mr. Gogoi to drop Rupam Kurmi. Anjan Datta may feel safe as he is in the good books of the party high command because of his role in reviving the moribund ASTC. On the other hand, Devanand Konwar is known as a bitter critic of Mr. Gogoi. Sarat Barkataky is a senior party leader and dropping him from the cabinet may not be an easy task for the Chief Minister. There are three ministers in Gogoi’s cabinet from Barak Valley. They are Gautam Roy (Social Welfare), Dinesh Prasad Goala (PHC) and Mis bahul Islam Laskar (independent charge). Some senior ministers in the Gogoi Government have come from lower Assam. They are veteran Dr Bhumidhar Barman (Health), Ismail Hussain (Irrigation), Bhubaneshwar Kalita (Industry) and Mithius Tudu (Revenue). The ministers who are expected to save their jobs are Ripun Bora (Panchayat and Rural Development), Pradyut Bordoloi, Himanta Biswa Sharma (Planning and Development), Nilomoni Sen Deka (Finance), Rockybul Hussain (Home) and Ajanta Neog (Tourism). Thus, Mr. Gogoi will have to spend some sleepless nights to keep his favourites in the cabinet and at the same time keeping everyone happy.  Gogoi’s counterparts in other North-Eastern states are also facing the same problem. Lot of political skills will be required by the Chief Ministers to keep their respective governments floating. What works for the Chief Ministers, is the fact that the ministers are also in a bind, since the Bill also has anti-defection provisions, under which defectors will be debarred from holding any public office till their re-election, and therefore they will not be able to revolt against the Chief Minister’s or party’s decision.

While the politicians are unhappy, agitated over the new Act, the North-Easterners have much to rejoice. With limited number of ministers, the burden on the State exchequer will be reduced considerably, which in turn will ensure more funds for developmental activities in the NE states. The Centre has said that the size of the Ministries could be kept at a minimum of twelve, regardless of the strength of a House in order to give representation to all social groups, especially in North-Eastern states. Thus while the politicians will have find new employment opportunities, the NE populace has every reason to be happy.