Disturbed Manipur
The State is burning for more than a month now. Yet, no definite strategy has been chalked out to tackle the situation. 

WHILE both the UPA Government and the Congress are still nursing the wound created by Satluj-Yamuna Link Canal issue, the party has suffered yet another blow when Armed forces Special Power Act (AFSPA) was withdrawn from the municipal wards of the Imphal city by Manipur Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh. Like his Punjab counterpart Capt. Amrinder Singh, Ibobi too ignored both the Centre and the party high command. The fact that Mr. Singh has taken this decision only to save his chair is now being ‘’deliberately ignored’’ by his supporters. Definitely from now on, he will be projected as a leader who can take Delhi head on. Ibobi Singh could become a hero overnight as a strong sense of alienation and neglect exist in Manipur for years now. Like Amrinder, any action against Ibobi Singh at this stage will distance the party from the masses and as well as fuel a strong anti-Centre sentiment in the State. But the manner in which these two Chief Ministers had gone against the wishes of the Centre and the party, raises questions about the ability of the Central Government and the Congress party to rein in such dissidence.

While Amrinder’s step would certainly deal a blow to the federal structure of the country, Ibobi’s decision has brought to light the fact that the Centre and the State differ while dealing with terrorism which will certainly give a fresh lease of life to underground movement in the North-East. Moreover, this will fuel the demands of lifting the controversial Act from other North-Eastern states.

It may be mentioned here that notwithstanding the ceasefire agreement with both the groups of NSCN, the said Act is still in force in Nagaland. Nagaland Chief Minister N. Rio had already made a strong plea for withdrawal of AFSPA from the State. One may argue that in the case of Punjab, the Centre had very little or no time at all to react as everything was over within couple of hours. But that was not the case with Manipur. The State is burning for more than a month now. Yet, no definite strategy was chalked out to tackle the situation, which in turn allowed Ibobi Singh to smoothly implementl his game plan.

From the very beginning Ibobi Singh made it clear to the Centre that he wanted AFSPA to go. During the last one month he came twice to Delhi and tried to pursue the central leaders to toe his line. His alibi was that the excesses committed by the security forces under the cover of AFSPA had antagonised the people and eight of his MLAs had already threatened to resign along with    five CPI legislatures which has put  a question mark on the survival of his Government.

But the Centre did not pay any heed to his plea as it believed that the Chief Minister did not do anything substantial to control the situation and allowed it slip out of hand. Moreover, it was because of his mishandling of the situation that the agitation gained grounds, it felt. As a matter of fact Ibobi’s softness towards the undergrounds was a talking point in Delhi since he became the Chief Minister. And when the report came that the ultras were virtually forcing the people to take the streets, the Centre asked Ibobi to act in a manner befitting of a chief Minister. But the Centre committed an error here by not keeping a contingency plan ready if the Chief Minister refuses to follow its directive. The decision to prorogue the State Assembly to prevent the Chief Minister from lifting AFSPA showed its inexperience as the Act could be lifted simply by a cabinet resolution and that’s exactly what Ibobi Singh has done. Moreover, no senior Union Ministers visited the State during the period which gave the agitators enough scope to highlight Delhi’s neglect towards Manipur. Besides, contradictory statements, especially by two senior ministers of the UPA Government had also worsened the situation.

Ibobi took every advantage of the prevailing confusion among the decision makers and went ahead with his plan. Even if he was little reluctant at the initial stages, Ibobi Singh made up his mind to follow Amrinder when Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee summoned Manipur Industry Minister Debendra Singh to Delhi. The Chief Minister got the news in the midst of a cabinet meeting and promptly retired to his chamber giving ample indication that he was not happy with the Centre. From then onwards withdrawal of AFSPA by Ibobi Singh was a forgone conclusion. As August 15 dateline was approaching fast, the Chief Minister was looking for an appropriate moment and finally on August 12, he took the decision, leaving his bosses to lick the wound.

The Ibobi Government has decided to withdraw the Act from all the 27 municipal wards in Imphal and Greater Imphal areas in Imphal East and Imphal West districts in the first phase.

The two hour-long cabinet meeting discussed in detail the demand of the 32 organisations spearheading the agitation for the withdrawal of the act from the entire state and the detriorating law and order situation arising out of it. Minutes after the cabinet meeting, Ibobi Singh and some of his cabinet colleagues went to J N Hospital to persuade 33-year old social activist Irom Sharmila to end her more than three year-long fast unto death to press for withdrawal of the act from the State. But Sharmila refused to oblige. Clearly the battle between the Centre and Ibobi is far from over. While Ibobi will try to consolidate his position further, the Congress has already initiated move to replace Ibobi by Debendra Singh. Debendra Singh has been reportedly asked by the party high command to gather the support of anti-Ibobi MLAs.

Certainly Ibobi will not give up so easily with his new found USP. He had already given ample indication of this by harping on the Centre while announcing the decision and visiting Sharmila, the Manipuri girl who is on fast for the last three years demanding the withdrawal of the Act. And even if Ibobi loses majority within the Congress Legislature Party, he may try to remain in power by changing the party and making a new alliance. So the Congress may have to continue with Ibobi against its wishes.

But the fear is that this tussle between the Centre and Ibobi may create a tailor-made situation for the ultras to exploit and keep Manipur burning for years to come.