The December 31, 2001, the dateline for the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) to close down four of its camps in Bhutanese soil is well over. However, it seems that the outfit has not closed its bases in the Himalayan kingdom, but only relocated few camps. The militant outfit has very cleverly closed three of its bases in bordering south-eastern Bhutan to move deeper into the mountainous jungles. As a result it can now tell the Royal Government of Bhutan that it has lived up to its promise. In a series of talks with the Royal Government of Bhutan in June last year, the ULFA had agreed to close down four of its camps and reduce its presence in that country.

The militant outfit is not in a position to vacate Bhutan as its escape routes from its soil are limited. Moreover, the ULFA knows that an armed conflict with the insurgents would give rise to serious problems for Bhutan and pose a direct threat to the government, masses and vital installations.

Statements of government officials, Dzongles (DC of the districts) and reports in the state-run weekly newpaper indicate that the Royal Government is contemplating a military offensive against the outfit if it doesn’t vacate Bhutanese soil. Three thousand Royal Bhutanese army personnel were trained last year in counter-insurgency operation by the Indian Army. The Royal Government also made Bhutanese citizens understand that they should be ready to vacate their homes, close down business, take evasive action and face other hard consequences in the likely outcome of a military operations against the Assam militants. However, it is very difficult for Bhutan to translate all this into real action. Government sources themselves accept that at least 80,000 people need to be evacuated, moved and funds mobilised for their well being in preparation for an armed conflict. This itself is a very formidable task, leave alone the horrors of locking horns with the militarily sound militants. The ULFA knows all these weaknesses pretty well and hence goes on extending its stay in Bhutan.

However, it is a fact that the hard talk made by the Bhutan Royal Government and the December 31 dateline had made the outfit to think and introspect deeply about its future strategies. In fact, it is believed that the cadres of the outfit held a meeting in Nepal in the end of December to discuss about its shifting camps to the Chittagong Hill Tracts in Bangladesh. In fact, after the June talks with the Royal Government of Bhutan, the trijunction of Assam, Meghalaya and Bangladesh in the Garo hills is being contemplated by the outfit as an alternate base for its cadres and materials. From here, the outfit can finally sneak its cadres into Bangladesh, which is now considered a safe haven in militant circles after the change of guard in that country. 

The last quarter of the year 2001 even saw about 30 leaders of the ULFA making their way into the Garo Hills from Bhutan. This movement of its cadres was under the responsibility of three top leaders of the outfit --- Drishti Rajkhowa, Hira Saramia and Rustav Choudhury. However, a few amognst the cadres sneaking in were nabbed by the security forces. The Rangiya based Red Horns division of the Army has been deployed all along the Indo-Bhutan border to plug ULFA cadres movement from Bhutan to Assam. The police and the para-military are round the clock screening routes to and within the Khasi and Garo hills. The F. A. Khonglam Government in Meghalaya has even clamped night curfew along the Indo-Bangladesh border in the East Khasi Hills. This move comes in order to check movement of rebels as well as smuggling of arms from across the border.

The Dawlkit-Janabil route and through areas like Mawsynram and Balat areas and ammunitions were smuggled into the North-East. This is even accepted by the DC of East Khasi Hills. It is understood from government sources that similar steps will soon follow in the Garo Hills too. There are unconfirmed reports that the ULFA may even think to sneak into North Bengal and stay put there or make inroads into Bangladesh or Meghalaya from that side. But it won’t be easy given the security arrangement in that State too. Hence, it leaves the outfit with very limited option as far as escape routes from Bhutan are concerned.
     
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