Whither BJP

Gegong Apang’s sudden defection to the Congress would mar Bharatiya Janata Party’s prospect in the North-East.
North East News Agency

BEFORE the last general elections, many political observers predicted that it was advantage Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the North-East. Some even went little too further to claim that the Congress bastion in the North-   East was never under so much  threat especially from a national party.   Few saw the rise of the      BJP in the region as an alternative of the Congress.

All these predictions were made not because of any love for the saffron party, but based on hard facts and ground realities. Rising strength in Assam, tremendous amount of goodwill among the Nagas, capturing power in Arunachal and above all adaptability to coalition politics, were being cited as the reasons for an expected good show by the BJP in the general elections in the North-East. BJP also realised these facts. As soon as he took over the reins of  the party, BJP president Venkaiah Naidu made several trips to the North-East. Mr. Naidu realised that in fulfilling his ambitious dream of capturing 300 seats, the North-Eastern region would play a major role. He rightly anticipated that a good show in the North-East would balance the probable loss in other parts of the country. The then prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his deputy L. K. Advani were also keen to make some gains in the region. Mr. Vajpayee started his nationwide campaign from Guwahati on the BJP’s foundation day. The former prime minister also made a trip to Nagaland and left no stone unturned to win over the Nagas. The then deputy prime minister L. K. Advani also made several trips to the North-East before the elections.

But there were very little or no gain at all for the BJP in the region in the polls. The party, which was expected to share the honors with the ruling Congress in Assam, could win only two seats in the State out of 14. In Manipur, where the party was so confident of winning both the seats that it rejected the proposal of an opposition alliance, drew blank. Arunachal was the only saving grace for the BJP in the region as BJP won both the seats from the State.

What went wrong for the BJP? Why did the saffron party fail to make inroads in the Congress bastion? Did the observers overrate BJP’s prospects?

The BJP’s failure in the North-East is mainly because of the fact that its top leaders misjudged the ground situations. As it was advantage BJP in the beginning of the electoral race, the party leaders became little bit complacent and ignored popular opinion both in selection of candidates and in campaigning. Thus even before the first ballot was cast, the North-Eastern people felt alienated from the BJP.

Take the example of Assam. Surprising many, BJP won the prestigious Guwahati Look Saba seat in 1999. Bijoya Chakraborty,   the BJP nominee from this constituency was even made a minister in the Vajpayee Ministry. But in 2004, despite her good performance both as a minister and as an MP, Ms. Chakraborty was denied ticket and eminent singer Bhupean Hazarika, who joined the BJP only days before the elections was given nomination.

While giving ticket to Bhupen Hazarika, the BJP did not realise that North-East was different from mainland. In the mainland, popular names from other walks of life normally become instant success in t the electoral battle. But same is not the case in the North-East. Here the electorate weighs various options before casting the vote.

Moreover, the people failed to realise the rationale behind selecting Bhupen Hazarika as the BJP nominee. Only couple of months before the general elections, the noted singer from North-East was denied a Rajya Sabha berth. People in Guwahati started questing how a man could be eligible for a Lok Sabha ticket within months of rejection of his candidature for Rajya Sabha.

Besides, the people were not pleased with Mr. Hazarika joining a political party. When he was denied a place in Rajya Sabha, all the political parties in the Sate came with a proposal of making him a consensus candidate for the next Rajya Sabha elections. At that time, Mr. Hazarika rejected the proposal.

Again the BJP made a mistake by overlooking the rightful claim of Bijoya Chakraborty as she was most vocal among the BJP leaders in the State against the Tarun Gogoi Government. Thus, because of wrong assessment of BJP central leadeship of the situation, Ms. Chakraborty got all the sympathy of the voters and Bhupen Hazarika was left to fight a lost battle from the very beginning.

BJP leadership is to be blamed for this fiasco. Beyond doubt, the entry of Mr. Hazarika was a shot in the arm for the party. But the party could not get maximum dividends because of its faulty policies.

Bhupen Hazarika is a respected name not only in Assam but in the entire North-Eastern region. It would have been much better if BJP had utilised the services of Mr. Hazarika in campaigning rather than confining him to Guwahati only and making him a party to some unnecessary controversies.

Another factor which went against the BJP was its failure to observe the coalition mantra. Every Indian has now accepted the fact that coalition era has come here to stay. The BJP’s rise to power is   also because of coalition politics. But strangely the BJP, the major partner of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) did not show any respect to its coalition partners before the elections.

The saffron party rejected the offer of Samata Party and other constituents of NDA to have an electoral understanding in the region. In Manipur, though the party is very much a part of opposition alliance, unilaterally decided to go alone. The party did not enter into any electoral understanding with Purno Sangma-led North East People’s Forum (NEPF).  BJP also overlooked the suggestions of an electoral ties with Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).

It is not a case of becoming wise after the event. But the fact remains that the BJP could have prevented the Congress from getting a virtual walkover in the Inner Manipur Parliamentary constituency, if it would have entered an electoral alliance with other opposition parties. Sitting MP and the president of BJP’s state unit Chauba Singh had received threats from an underground organisation much before the elections. The threat   was so severe that he could not even campaign. If the BJP had fielded another candidate or supported an opposition candidate things could have been different.

Similarly, the BJP’s decision    not to have an understanding with the NEPF is perplexing to say the least. Despite being a member of   the said forum why did BJP back out at the eleventh hour is not yet known. P. A. Sangma through that forum tried to bring all non-Congress parties under one umbrella. But beacause of BJP’s stubbornness Mr. Sangma’s dream remained unfulfilled.

The third factor which went against BJP in the region was the activities of the RSS. As the BJP started gaining grounds in the North-Eastern region, RSS stepped up its activities in the area. States like Nagaland, where the   population is predominantly Christian, the activities of the RSS did not go down well with the people. As a direct fall out of       RSS activities, BJP lost the Outer Manipur Parliamentary constituency.

If all these factors were not enough to shatter BJP’s dream in the North-East, Gegong Apang’s delivered the final nail in BJP’s coffin with his sudden switch over to the Congress.

In a perfect case of becoming wiser after the event, BJP is now admitting to have learnt its mistake the ‘’hard way’’ and promised to be cautious in future while accepting anybody into its fold.

The BJP has not learnt any lessons as it had readmitted Arunachal Deputy Chief Minister Kameng Dolo in the party.

Again, Gegong Apang from   day one was opposed to joining   the BJP. The threat to dethrone him from Chief Ministership by the BJP forced him to join the party. At     that time, BJP was only eager to have his government in Arunachal Pradesh.

Clearly BJP’s loss is the Congress’ gain. The party with the success achieved in Arunachal       in now eyeing to regain lost grounds in the region. The party is reportedly working on a ‘blue print’ to regain power in five              North-Eastern states of Nagaland, Tripura, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim.

“Rejoining of Gegong Apang,, who knows the nuts and bolts        of North-East, particularly Arunachal Pradesh would be instrumental in not only strengthening the party, but also achieving its planned strategy for the region,’’ AICC Secretary Ramesh Chennithala said.

“Bringing all old guards, like Chief Minister Gegong Apang to the Congress fold was the number one agenda of this blue print,’’ he said. The divisive forces against the secular policy and ideology of Congress were working to derail the Congress train, he said, and appealed to the rank and file of the party to unite and defeat the nefarious design of such anti-national forces.

“Every Congress worker is responsible towards the party, and the time has come to prove the loyalty,’’ Mr. Chennithala said.

Reiterating the Congress party’s commitment to the all-round development of the North-Eastern states, Ramesh Mr Chennithala said Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil’s visit was a humble beginning in this direction. He maintained that the process of understanding the contentious issues confronting the region is creating an atmosphere conducive for mutual understanding and a new era of peace and progress in the region under the Congress regime.   He also pointed out to party president Sonia Gandhi’s special attention towards the people of the region and announced that the party was determined to tackle the problems of the region on war footing.

Clearly the Congress is now on the offensive. But the BJP leadership has to only blame themselves for such a situation. It’s time for them to make a serious introspection of what went wrong in the North-East. Why did the party fail to dethrone the Congress in the North-East? 

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