Editorial, Mar. 22- Apr. 7, 2000

Editorial Vol. 2 Issue 39-40

Mar. 22- Apr. 7, 2000

AGP's Decline

As dissident Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) leader and former State minister Atul Bora has formed a new regional outfit, Trinamul Gana Parishad, the popularity and mass base of the ruling party in Assam is certain to suffer another irrepairable damage. Earlier, former home minister of the State Bhrigu Phukan had also taken to the same recourse after being at loggerheads for a couple of years with Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta. With the formation of the Trinamul Gana Parishad, within 15 years of its inception, the AGP has now been divided into three parts. The three pillars of the AGP — Prafulla Mahanta, Bhrigu Phukan and Atul Bora — all are now heading different parties, leaving the party workers in distress, and the people perplexed.

The departure of Bhrigu Phukan and Atul Bora from the AGP could not have come at a worse time. How quickly the AGP’s support base is eroding in Assam can be judged by the fact that in the last two general elections the party failed to win a single parliamentary seat in the State. What’s worse is that in most of the 14 Lok Sabha seats the party came third behind the Congress and BJP. The party tried to change its electoral fortune by fielding strong candidates like Chief Minister’s wife Jayshree Mahanta, cinestar Biju Phukan, former AASU president Sarbananda Sonowal among others. But all of them had to taste defeats at the hustings.

AGP chief Prafulla Mahanta may derive pleasure from the fact that with the departure of Mr. Phukan and Mr. Bora from the party, there is no real challenge to his leadership within the party. But Mr. Mahanta and his followers have failed to realise that if the present trend continues, the party does not have even a chance to retain power in the State in the next Assembly elections in 2001.

Infighting in the AGP is not new. Within five years of its formation, the party suffered a vertical split when leaders like former union minister Dinesh Goswami, former speaker Pulakesh Barua along with Bhrigu Phukan formed the Natun Asom Gana Parishad. As a result of the split, the party suffered at the hustings and had to hand over the reins of the State to the Congress. One wonders how long the AGP leaders will take to emulate the virtues of the other political parties rather than absorbing the vices. From day one, the party is plauged by infighting, groupism and nepotism. These not only betrayed the hopes of the people of the State, but also prevented the AGP from being a strong regional outfit.

It is the BJP which is gaining most from the internal brickerings of the AGP. Results of the last two general elections clearly shows that the BJP is steadily gaining grounds in the State at the expense of the AGP. Ealier the party’s influence was limited only to the Barak valley, but now it has been able to make a dent even in the Bhramaputra valley. In the last parliamentary polls, the party, apart from bagging the prestigious Guwahati seat, had emerged as an alternative to the AGP in the State. The party, which shares almost an identical agenda with the AGP, will undoubtedly be glad to see more divisions and further erosion in their rival’s support base. The Congress also must be watching the situation carefully. The party’s electoral fortune largely depends on the minority votes. In the last Assembly elections the party could not manage those votes as the AGP managed to woo the minorities by keeping mum on the cotroversial illegal migrants issue. Split in the AGP will ensure that the party will not be in a position to play the same card again, which will effectively brightens the electoral prospects of the Congress. The minority votes can again swing towards the Congress, as was indicated in the Silchar parliamentary constituency in the last elections where the Muslims voted enblock for the Congress. This was despite the fact that the AGP had fielded State Minister Abdul Muhib Mazumdar in that constituency. An united AGP can take on the duel challenges of the Congress and BJP. But a divided AGP is virtually no match for these two major political forces in the State. And the AGP leaders have failed to understand this simple fact.

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