Headlines       Vol. 2 Issue 3-4

May 22-June 6 , 1999

The 'Sangma factor' in North-East Beyond doubt, the expulsion of Purno Sangma will hamper the electoral prospect of the Congress in the North-East region. Though the expulsion may not vertically split the party in the region, few disgruntled Congress leaders may join hands with Mr. Sangma and may make a dent in the party's vote bank. On the other hand, the All India Congress Committee has now deployed all its resources to minimise the 'Sangma factor' in the North-East. Chief Minister of Nagaland S. C. Jamir said that Mr. Sangma may be a big leader from the region, but the North-East will give a fitting reply to those opposed to Sonia Gandhi. He referred to the impression created during the BJP rule that Christians were being persecuted, and this would be a factor in the North-East. He pointed out that Mr. Sangma and he both owed their position as 'leaders' to the Congress and the bottom line was that the people of the North-East know that they can depend only on the Congress to protect their identity, ensure development of the region and social security for the people. The 'Sangma factor' will hurt the Congress most in Meghalaya —— the former Lok Sabha speaker's home State. There is a definite possibility that a majority of the Congress MLAs, elected from the Garo Hills area of the State may resign from the party and join hands with Mr. Sangma after the formation of a new political party by the rebel trio. At present, the Congress has 19 MLAs from the Garo Hills. If the former Lok Sabha speaker get the support of a majority of the Congress MLAs, that will have far reaching consequences on Meghalaya politics. There is even a possibility that Mr. Sangma (provided he gets the support of a majority of Congress MLAs in the State) may ask Meghalaya Chief Minister B. B. Lyngdoh to dump the Congress. At present, Mr. Lyngdoh is heading a coalition Government with Congress as one of its partners. Observers believe that if Mr. Sangma has enough strength to provide stability to the Lyngdoh Government, he will definitely ask Mr. Lyngdoh to snap ties with the Congress and to form an alliance with his party. In such an eventuality, the Congress will have no other option but to seat in the opposition once again. If Mr. Sangma does not have enough numbers to provide stability to the Lyngdoh Government, even then the problems of the Congress are far from over. In such an eventuality, Mr. Sangma may join hands with opposition parties and try to destabilise the coalition government in the State. Or he may ask the Chief Minister to induct his loyalists in the cabinet. The second situation will harm the Congress most as in that case the party will have to either pull itself out of the government or have to share power with a party formed by its expelled members. Moreover, the Congress has a strong base in the Garo Hills areas of the State. Its strength in the State mainly comes from this area. The strong support base of the party will certainly be affected, if the Congress leaders fail to minimise the damage caused by Mr. Sangma's expulsion. In such an eventuality, the Congress will find it difficult to remain as a major political force in the State. In other North-Eastern states, though Mr. Sangma does not have much influence, there is a possibility of many dissident Congressmen and former Congress leaders joining him. If that happens, Mr. Sangma's proposed new party may not win a seat, but eat into the Congress' vote bank. No one knows it better than Mr. Sangma that his political future will mostly depend of how much strength he can garner from the North-East region, damaging the Congress. Not long ago, Arjun Singh and N. D. Tewari had no other options but to return to the Congress fold after they failed to make a dent in the party's support base in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh respectively. Surely, Mr. Sangma's position in the proposed new formation will be determined by this factor.

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